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  • Daniel Nikolaev
    THE IMPACT OF COMMERCIAL BANKS ON CONVERGENCE IN THE EUROPEAN UNION
    JEL: G21, C31, C39
    Keywords: international commercial banks, convergence, European Union
    Summary: The paper traces the impact of the international, systematically important banks on the state and phenomena observed in the European Union. It comes to the conclusion that international commercial banks further strengthen the convergence in the banking systems of the member states. In the process of disclosure of these relationships, the macroeconomic factors in the European Union have also been analyzed affecting the returns from the main activity of banking institutions aggregated across member states. By sequential use of the regression model and optimization, values representing the local specificities of the individual member-state towards the Union have been reached. Links have been found that suggest a time lag in the effects observed since the crisis in 2008. Both the international banks and the stock market status in the individual member states indicate that international systematically important banks function as a conductor of extreme cross-border phenomena.
  • Elena Ralinska
    Modeling the Sources of Value in Banks and Valuation Through the Discounted Cash Flow Method
    JEL: G21, C31, C39
    Keywords: factor model, value of a bank, CAMP, discounted cash flow model, shareholders’ net income
    Summary: We propose an upgrade, adaptation and implementation of a factor model of historical financial analysis, forecasting and valuation of the banking institution through the method of discounted cash flows based on publicly accessible data, which can be applied in the practice. We research the adequacy and plausibility of the approach, its benefits and drawbacks, as we test it on Unicredit Bulbank Ltd, and we apply a comparative valuation app-roach and accounting reference values of control of the obtained results. The research objective is to upgrade and calibrate the model by introducing rest-rictive conditions for forecasting in compliance with the existing regulatory framework and the observations of the practice. For this purpose, we have also introduced a feasible parametrization and we have brought forth relevant recommendations for forecasting the activity of banking financial institutions.