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Radko Radkov, Andrey Zahariev
The Currency Board in Bulgaria: Theoretical Reflections and Empirical Results
Summary:
Via this article the authors would like to discuss the idea of the inter-section point of theoretical reflections and reported empirical results referring to the currency board in Bulgaria. To achieve the goal defined the article is structured in the following separate sections: first, clarification of the concept of a currency board in light of leading theoretical research; second, critical analysis and evaluation of the characteristics of the currency board in Bulgaria; third, justification of the authors’ answer regarding the end of the currency board in Bulgaria and its replacement with another system; fourth, econometric analysis and assessment of foreign trade sector influence on the GDP in Bulgaria under the conditions of a fixed currency exchange rate and a high percentage of foreign trade of goods and services in the structure of the GDP; fifth, a study of the currency boards influence on the economic convergence of Bulgaria in comparison with leading EU economies for the period 1998 – 2012. For the authors, Bulgaria’s path to membership in the Eurozone while keeping the currency board regime during the whole period of being in the ERM II “waiting room” is logical and has social and institutional support. The argument for this is that Estonia’s example of entering the Eurozone by preserving the currency rate at the level of the currency board is the reasonable and rational national project for developing Bulgaria’s economy and financial system.
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Boyko Petev
TAX FRAUD AS SECURITY THREAT
Summary:
The challenges faced by the EU Member States in the fields of taxation and tax fraud are a topical issue. Its importance stems from several groups of factors, such as changes in public relations, new legislation in the Republic of Bulgaria related to its EU membership, and lack of compre¬hensive research in this field. Moreover, the need for such a research arises from the by Bulgaria’s drastically changed financial and legal relations, which, after more than ten years of the country’s EU membership require an analysis of its experience and the lessons it has learned in the field of its public relations that emerged and developed in the financial system of the Republic of Bulgaria and the threats for its national security as a part of the EU financial system. In some aspects, an attempt has been made to present and interpret them from a new perspective.
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Horatiu Dan
Joining the Euro Zone – an Exploration of Real and Structural Convergence in Romania, Bulgaria and Croatia
Summary:
Twenty years after the creation of the Euro Zone, the monetary union remains the subject of both academic and political debate, often focusing on non-EZ Member States and their monetary integration aspirations (or lack thereof). In this context, one of the many hurdles in the way of Euro adoption lies in the incomplete character of the sine qua non conditions expressed in the Maastricht Treaty, which, although the only set of convergence conditions expressed in the European acquis, are univer¬sally deemed to be insufficient for successful EZ membership. Consequently, these nominal convergence conditions need to be doubled by less transparent real and structural convergence conditions. It is the objective of this paper to analyse some indicators pertaining to real and structural convergence in Romania, Bulgaria and Croatia by focusing on key aspects regarding (1) the capacity to catch up with EU’s PPS computed GDP per capita mean, (2) specialization, (3) business cycle synchronization and (4) current account structure. While recognizing that these four elements are not sufficient to ensure successful EZ membership, including them as inputs in the Euro adoption decision making process would have beneficial impact on its efficiency.
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Veniamin Todorov
STABILIZATION ROLE OF THE MACROECONOMIC POLICY DURING THE COVID-19 CRISIS
Summary:
The article presents an analysis of the role of macroeconomic stabilization policy during the economic crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The analysis covers both monetary and fiscal policy using data on macroeconomic activity, inflation, the severity of restrictive measures, the level of uncertainty, the degree of financial stress on the financial system, etc. It tests two hypotheses formulated as follows: Hypothesis one is that considering the specific characteristics of the COVID-19 exogenous shock, there was a need for a quick and decisive response by means of a macroeconomic stabilization policy. The second hypothesis asserts that expansionary macroeconomic policies played a key role for the recovery of the economies from the COVID-19 recession and their subsequent growth. Both hypotheses are confirmed.
